For much of the past decade, global logistics performance was discussed in terms of capacity. Vessel availability, port congestion, trucking shortages, and infrastructure limits shaped how delays were explained and addressed.
In 2026, that framing is no longer sufficient.
Global logistics is no longer constrained primarily by capacity. It is constrained by friction.
This friction is not the result of a single failure point. It is the cumulative effect of how modern supply chains are designed, governed, and operated.
Capacity Exists, Flow Does Not
From a purely physical perspective, capacity has recovered in many parts of the logistics system. Shipping lanes are operating, ports are functioning, and transportation networks are broadly available.
Yet goods do not flow smoothly.
Shipments pause repeatedly. Not because there is nowhere to go, but because systems hesitate to move them. These pauses occur between handoffs, approvals, validations, and re-optimizations.
The system is active, but progress is intermittent.
Friction Is Distributed Across the Chain
Unlike congestion, friction does not accumulate in one visible location. It is distributed across the entire chain.
Customs clearance introduces variability that cannot be scheduled precisely. Inventory buffers are added to compensate for uncertainty rather than demand. Decision-making slows execution as networks wait for confirmation that a better option does not exist.
Each source of friction appears manageable in isolation. Together, they define end-to-end performance.
Customs and Compliance Have Become Structural Constraints
Regulatory processes now play a central role in determining lead times. Clearance outcomes depend on risk models, data consistency, and accountability rather than document completeness alone.
This shifts delay from transportation nodes to administrative ones. Goods may arrive quickly but wait unpredictably for approval to move forward.
In this environment, clearance is no longer an administrative checkpoint. It is an operational variable.
Decision Latency Is Replacing Physical Bottlenecks
Modern logistics systems are designed to maximize optionality. Multiple routes, suppliers, and fulfillment paths increase resilience but slow commitment.
Cargo increasingly waits for decisions rather than space. Routing confirmation, risk approval, and exception handling introduce pauses that compound across the network.
The speed of decision-making has become as important as the speed of transport.
Inventory Buffers Are Absorbing Uncertainty
As predictability declines, inventory buffers are quietly returning. Not as a failure of planning, but as a stabilizing mechanism.
Buffers convert unknown delays into known costs. They reduce reliance on expediting and absorb variability that cannot be eliminated at the source.
This represents a shift from optimization toward control.
Why This Framework Matters in 2026
Treating delays as isolated problems leads to fragmented solutions. More capacity, faster transport, or better forecasting address symptoms rather than structure.
Understanding friction as the dominant constraint allows organizations to redesign processes around reality rather than expectation.
In 2026, the most effective logistics strategies do not eliminate friction. They recognize where it accumulates, how it propagates, and how it can be absorbed without destabilizing the system.
Global logistics is no longer slow because it lacks capacity.
It is slow because modern supply chains generate friction by design.